UTR Sports INSIGHTS is taking a closer look at the 2024 Australian Open men’s final.
(4) Jannik Sinner (16.23) vs. (3) Daniil Medvedev (16.05)
With two wins over Djokovic in the past two months, of course Sinner had a shot at upseting the 10-time Australian Open champion. But to do it inside Rod Laver Arena, where Djokovic hadn’t lose since 2018, and in a five-set encounter, was another ask. Still, Sinner powered through (despite missing a match point opportunity in the third set) for a 6-1, 6-2, 6-7(6), 6-3 win.
“The confidence from end of last year has for sure kept the belief that I can play against the best players in the world and I’m really happy that I can play Sunday my first [Grand Slam] final,” Sinner said.
Sinner captured four titles in 2023 for his best season yet, including his first Masters 1000 in Toronto and first Davis Cup crown.
In what can only be described as poetic, Sinner is the youngest Australian Open men’s singles finalist since Djokovic in 2008.
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While Sinner enters new territory on Sunday, Medvedev will be contest his fourth Grand Slam final, having won the 2021 US Open and reached the Australian Open final twice before.
The 26-year-old pulled off a comeback win over his rival Zverev, 5-7 3-6 7-6(4) 7-6(5) 6-3. It’s the second time this fortnight that Medevedev has fought back from two sets down.
“In the third set I kept saying to myself, 'if I lose this match then I want to be proud of myself'. If I lose, I lose, but I won so I am very proud,” Medvedev said.
Sinner will take on Medvedev for the 10th time with the two facing off in a whopping five matches in 2023. Sinner has won the last two encounters, two being finals (Beijing and Vienna).
According to INSIGHTS, Sinner holds the edge with 60% odds of winning his first Grand Slam title. He’s got the better UTR Ratings, including hard-court and three-month trending, and though he lost 3 out of 5 matches to Medvedev last year, he’s riding a three-match win streak over the Russian.
* UTR Ratings and INSIGHTS probabilities as of Jan. 26, 2024.